The Cape and Islands could be in for an increase in coastal erosion and flooding this winter with an unprecedented El Niño already in motion.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a forecast at the end of summer that there is a 70 percent chance that the building El Niño — aptly named by the New York Times as the world’s naturally recurring chaos agent — would be the strongest on record, impacting global weather patterns in the coming months in ways never recorded.
Locally, that could mean the potential for a warmer and wetter January, February and March.
“Especially for the south facing coastline, be prepared for coastal erosion and coastal flooding with some of these storms, and have a plan in place,” said Chris Gloninger, a climate scientist and meteorologist with the Woods Hole Group. “Be prepared for some pretty extreme weather.”
Gloninger says that the long term models are showing that the height of the El Niño patterns will hit locally mid to late winter, around the same time as the typical Nor-easter season.
The heightened weather also comes as much of the state is coming out of a two-year drought, although Cape Cod and Nantucket are still considered to be in a level 2 drought. During prolonged drought, the ground is not as effective at absorbing rain water, which could worsen rain storms. It also comes as civil engineers warn that Massachusetts’ stormwater infrastructure is in dire need of billions of dollars in investment.
“I’m concerned about the increased threat of coastal flooding — large storms that produce coastal erosion and storms that produce a lot of rain,” the meteorologist said of the impacts of El Niño locally.
While there may be an increased potential for basement flooding and the closure of low-lying roads, on the more optimistic side, it could be a good winter for skiing to the north. That wet weather could spell snow in the mountains where it is just cold enough.
What is El Niño
El Niño is a natural weather phenomenon that shifts every few years. It is based on the change in water temperature in a region in the tropical Pacific known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. NOAA says that fluctuations in that area disrupt the normal wind and rainfall patterns across the tropics, which creates a cascade of global side effects.
The shift into El Niño occurs when the water temperature in that oscillation area sustains .5 degrees Celsius above the long term water-temperature average. A super El Niño is when those water temperatures are 2.0 degrees Celsius above the average. Modeling is showing that the current temperatures could exceed 4.0 degrees, prompting meteorologists to call this unprecedented. It may reach a level never recorded before.
Gloninger says that there has been modeling based on prior El Niño that can help predict what happens, but with climate change, there are some variables that are worrying, including warmer air temperatures and drought conditions.
“We don’t really have an analog to compare this with,” the meteorologist said. “And I think that is what is concerning forecasters. We are entering into uncharted territory.”
