Republican Gov. Phil Scott is locked in the tightest reelection bid of his gubernatorial career, according to the Vermont Public 2026 Poll.
First-time statewide candidate Amanda Janoo, a virtual unknown when she announced her Democratic campaign in March, is within 10 points of a five-term incumbent often hailed as the most popular governor in the country.
If the election was held today, according to the survey of 817 Vermonters, 42% would vote for Scott and 32% would cast their ballot for Janoo. Twenty percent are undecided; the poll has a margin of error of 3.4 percentage points.
Among likely voters, the poll found that 44% would vote for Scott and 34% for Janoo, with 16% undecided.
Julia Barnes, a veteran political strategist who formerly served as executive director of the Vermont Democratic Party, noted that Scott has won each of his last three reelection bids by at least 40 percentage points. She said his support among voters has clearly cratered since he won 73% of the vote in 2024.
“That, plus the very clear grassroots movement that Amanda Janoo is building, says to me that there is some momentum against what has been a seemingly insurmountable incumbency advantage,” Barnes told Vermont Public.
Scott’s approval ratings are down 15 percentage points since Vermont Public’s last poll in 2022, when 60% of Vermonters said they approved of the job he was doing as governor. According to the latest poll, fewer than half of residents — 45% — approve of Scott’s performance. His ratings are down most precipitously among a historically reliable segment of his winning coalition: Democrats.
Matt Dickinson, professor of political science at Middlebury College, said one of the poll’s notable findings is that Scott’s approval rating among Democrats has fallen by 31 percentage points over the last four years.
“And so I think some of what we’re seeing here is the partisan polarization nationally is filtering down to Vermont,” Dickinson said. “We’ve got people who are saying, ‘I may not know Janoo, but she’s a Democrat.’”
While Janoo may be outperforming expectations among political observers, Rich Clark, a professor of political science at Vermont State University who conducted the poll, said Scott maintains a statistically significant lead over his Democratic opponent.
Vermont voters haven’t ousted an incumbent governor in more than 60 years. And Scott’s campaign spokesperson, Emma Shouldice, said the governor remains confident that the streak will continue.
“We are going to continue to run our race the way the governor has run his past races,” she said.
That strategy relies heavily on criticizing the Democratic-controlled Legislature for thwarting Scott’s “affordability agenda,” which has included proposals to lower taxes and rein in state spending.
On the campaign trail this year, Scott has spent as much time stumping for down-ballot candidates for House and Senate as he has on his own race.
“We still need more balance, more moderation, more common sense and less ideology in the Legislature,” he said last month. “This makes the decision Vermonters make this fall in the voting booth very, very important.”
But the political coattails that delivered a historic number of legislative pickups for Republicans in 2024 may be shrinking. For instance, the poll found that Republican Lt. Gov. John Rodgers, who rode the red wave to victory during the last cycle, is trailing Democratic rival Molly Gray.
“I think people are saying, ‘OK, the pandemic was six years ago ... What have you done for me lately?’ And the answer is not much.”Natalie Silver, Democratic strategist
If Scott wins a sixth term, he’ll be the longest-serving governor in state history. Kurt Wright, a former Republican lawmaker from Burlington who served in the Legislature for nearly two decades, said the length of his tenure has perhaps become a liability.
“When you’ve been in office for a long time, I think there’s a sort of political fatigue that can set in,” he said.
Scott’s push for education reform, Wright said, has been particularly controversial. The governor unsuccessfully advocated for mandatory school district mergers over the past two years. And he favors a school-funding overhaul that would see the state usurp control of spending decisions from local school boards.
According to the poll, strong majorities of both Republicans and Democrats oppose giving up local control of spending.
“Even though people want their property taxes reduced, I don’t think they were necessarily in love with the proposal,” Wright said. “So I think you see some vulnerabilities there.”
Janoo said she plans to spend the last five weeks of the campaign working to persuade undecided voters. She said education reform has been a salient issue among Vermonters she’s talking to. She said Scott’s veto of a bill that would have restricted construction of data centers in Vermont has also struck a nerve.
“It’s not really a partisan thing,” Janoo said. “I think rural communities in general feel like they are not being heard, they’re not being supported.”
Shouldice, Scott’s campaign spokesperson, said Janoo’s “progressive agenda” — she’s calling for substantial tax increases on second-home owners and high earners, and wants government to pay for all primary health care services in the state — represents the sort of ideology Scott has been fighting against in the Legislature for the past decade.
“It’s what Vermonters got sick of and sent a message during the last cycle,” Shouldice said. “And they sent more mainstream down-the-middle-of-the-road people who helped us make changes in the last cycle.”
Some Vermonters are drawn to Janoo because of her proposed tax policies. Wolcott resident Liz Courtney said the Democrat has offered “specific economic plans of how we can find a way to pay for things.”
“There are wealthy people that have homes here and that live here and can afford to pay more taxes, and it would just make such a big difference for the rest of us,” Courtney said. “Like, there’s an imbalance there, and I think the fact that she seems to be proposing that we correct that imbalance, well, that makes sense to me.”
And not all Democrats are abandoning Scott. South Burlington resident Frank Cioffi is one of the lifelong Democrats that’s supported Scott over the past decade. He said the governor’s calm bearing and fiscally moderate approach are “especially important in such polarizing times.”
“Phil’s personality is exactly what we continue to need in Vermont,” Cioffi said. “He’s kind, he’s respectful. He’s a compassionate human being. And I think he has just incredible common sense.”
The poll identified demographic strengths and weaknesses for both Scott and Janoo. Janoo leads Scott by four percentage points among female residents, three percentage points among Chittenden County residents and six percentage points among people with a bachelor’s degree or higher.
“We’ve got people who are saying, ‘I may not know Janoo, but she’s a Democrat.’”Matt Dickinson, Middlebury College
Scott has double-digit leads in central and northern Vermont, outperforms Janoo three-to-one among people with a high school degree or less, and has a 26-point advantage among one of the highest-propensity voting groups — people 65 and older.
Natalie Silver, a political strategist who managed U.S. Rep. Becca Balint’s campaign in 2022, said Scott has until recently enjoyed broad support among Democrats who viewed him as a moderate foil to President Donald Trump. She said he endeared himself to the left when he signed gun control legislation, advocated for an abortion-rights amendment to the Vermont Constitution, and calmly shepherded Vermont through the coronavirus pandemic.
“I think people are saying, ‘OK, the pandemic was six years ago. The gun violence prevention bill was in 2018. What have you done for me lately?’” Silver said. “And the answer is not much.”
Scott’s political might in Montpelier derives from the undeniable electoral mandates he’s earned in his past three reelection victories. Even if he wins on Nov. 3, Silver said, his sixth term will be far more tenuous if he can’t replicate those margins of victory this year.
“I would say that if she comes within 10 points,” Silver said, “that is a sign that it is open season.”
