The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting below normal activity for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. In a news conference Thursday, May 21, NOAA Administrator Dr. Neil Jacobs said there is a 55% probability of a below normal season, a 35% chance of a near normal season, and a 10% chance of an above normal season.
"This equates to eight to 14 named storms with winds at or above 39 miles an hour," Jacobs reported. "Of these, three to six hurricanes with winds at or above 74 miles an hour, and one to three major hurricanes. That's your category three to five, with winds at or about 111 miles an hour."
Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. An average season has 14 named storms with seven hurricanes, including three major hurricanes. The last time NOAA’s May outlook predicted a below normal Atlantic hurricane season was 2015.
"But even though we're expecting a below average season in the Atlantic, it's very important to understand that it only takes one," Jacobs commented. "We have had category fives make landfall in the past during below average seasons."
Jacobs explained, "What's driving this forecast is largely an El Niño event. There's a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season, and an 80% chance that this El Niño will be moderate to strong."
However, NOAA is also predicting warmer than normal ocean temperatures in the Atlantic and weak trade winds – both of which tend to support more tropical storms. Those factors also came into play in the season outlook.
While El Niño conditions tend to produce fewer storms in the Atlantic, the weather pattern increases the likelihood for storms in the Central and Eastern Pacific. Jacobs also announced that NOAA predicts a 70% chance of above normal storm activity for the Central and Eastern Pacific in 2026.
