We are officially more than a month into hurricane season and we have a rare bit of good news: this year’s hurricane season may not be as active as originally thought, and it's already forecasted to be less active than last year.
But just how many hurricanes should we expect, and how strong might they be? Like many things, it depends on whom you ask and what weather model they’re using.
Phil Klotzbach is a Research Scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. He led the university’s seasonal hurricane forecasting for over a decade. Now, he gathered and compared the forecasts made by twenty-three different groups using different computer models.
"We wanted to create a one stop shop where you can get all the seasonal forecasts that are publically available, so you can give people a range of the forecasts," Klotzbach said.
The information comes from other public universities, government agencies like NOAA, and private weather forecasting companies, and there's quite a range in the predictions.
Some have forecasted a pretty quiet hurricane season, with as few as 4 hurricanes predicted this year. Other groups are forecasting a few more, with up to 8 or 9 hurricanes this season. And some, like Colorado State, have forecasted down from their original prediction, saying that it's looking like there will be less in 2018.
A reason for that is because the tropical Atlantic has not warmed up as quickly as it normally does. This year, it’s warming up much slower.
“Right now, the waters in the tropical Atlantic are running about half a degree Celcius, or a degree Fahrenheit colder. It might not sound like a lot, but it’s a big deal in the tropics and can make a big difference in terms of how the atmosphere responds," Klotzbach said.
That can play a significant role regarding how active the season is going to be. Not only is a colder Atlantic mean less fuel for hurricanes, since hurricanes live off of warm ocean water, but it also tends to mean a more stable atmosphere.
So the prediction is for a quieter season, but like anything weather-related, we'll have to wait and see.
